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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">blackmet</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия высших учебных заведений. Черная Металлургия</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Izvestiya. Ferrous Metallurgy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0368-0797</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2410-2091</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National University of Science and Technology "MISIS"</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17073/0368-0797-2020-6-458-468</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">blackmet-1908</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МАТЕРИАЛОВЕДЕНИЕ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MATERIAL SCIENCE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Математическое моделирование характеристик прочности хромистых ферритно-мартенситных сталей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mathematical modeling of strength characteristics of chromium ferritic-martensitic steels</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Беломытцев</surname><given-names>М. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Belomyttsev</surname><given-names>M. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д.т.н., профессор кафедры металловедения и физики прочности</p><p>119049, Москва, Ленинский пр., 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor of the Chair “ graphy and Physics of Strength”</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">myubelom@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Национальный исследовательский технологический университет «МИСиС»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>National University of Science and Technology “MISIS”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>07</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>63</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>458</fpage><lpage>468</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Беломытцев М.Ю., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Беломытцев М.Ю.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Belomyttsev M.Y.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://fermet.misis.ru/jour/article/view/1908">https://fermet.misis.ru/jour/article/view/1908</self-uri><abstract><p>Для прогнозирования химического состава жаропрочных высокохромистых сталей с ферритно-мартенситной структурой (ХФМС) (с числом легирующих элементов до 10 и таким же числом параметров технологии получения и термической обработки) необходима математическая модель. В настоящей работе проведен поиск зависимостей предела текучести и предела прочности ХФМС от содержания легирующих элементов и температуры испытания без анализа технологических факторов ввиду их однотипности. Анализ проведен на базе совокупности экспериментальных данных, включающих в себя 63 испытания на растяжение при 20 – 720 °С образцов из 10 марок сталей. Предложены регрессионные мультипликативные зависимости, учитывающие через соответствующие сомножители в экспоненциальной и степенной форме твердорастворное и дисперсионное упрочнение, общее температурное разупрочнение стали, содержание углерода, суммарное содержание молибдена и вольфрама, упрочняющее воздействие марганца. Оценки влияния азота и кремния на прогнозные характеристики прочности показали, что сомножитель, учитывающий влияние азота, улучшает модель и является необходимым в общей формуле, а введение в модель сомножителя, учитывающего содержание кремния, модель ухудшает. Введение сомножителя от кремния в формулу может оказаться необходимым при анализе сталей с повышенным содержанием кремния (типа ЭП-823). Экспериментальный факт тесной связи пределов текучести и пределов прочности для исследуемых ХФМС сталей позволил использовать найденную для предела текучести форму уравнения и прогноза для предела прочности, отличающуюся лишь коэффициентами при переменных. Отклонение рассчитанных модельных пределов текучести и пределов прочности от экспериментальных составляет 13 – 18 %. Приведен пример анализа поведения предела текучести сталей с экспериментальными химическими составами. Показано, что найденные зависимости для предела текучести и предела прочности являются устойчивыми по отношению к увеличению размеров матрицы экспериментальных данных: с ростом числа опытов от 94 и выше коэффициент вариации V монотонно снижается вплоть до максимального размера массива в 299 опытов.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>To predict the chemical composition of heat-resistant high-chromium steels with ferritic-martensitic structure (HFMS) (with the number of alloying elements up to 10 and the same number of parameters of production and heat treatment technology), a mathematical model is needed. In this work, I searched for the dependences of the yield strength and ultimate strength of HFMS on the content of alloying elements and test temperature without analyzing technological factors due to their uniformity. Analysis of the samples from ten steel grades was carried out on the basis of the experimental data including 63 tensile tests at 20 – 720 °С. Regression multiplicative dependencies are proposed to take into account exponential and power-law form through the corresponding factors: solid solution and dispersion hardening, total temperature softening of the steel, carbon content, total molybdenum and tungsten content, and strengthening effect of manganese. Estimates of the effect of nitrogen and silicon on the predicted strength characteristics have shown that a factor that takes into account the effect of nitrogen improves the model and is necessary in the general formula, and introduction of a factor that takes into account silicon content, worsens the model. Introduction of a silicon factor in the formula may be necessary in analysis of steels with high silicon content (type EP-823). The experimental fact of a close relationship between yield strengths and tensile strengths for the studied HFMS steels made it possible to use for the yield strength the form of equation and forecast for the ultimate strength, which differs only by coefficients in variables. Deviation of the calculated model yield strengths and tensile strengths from experimental is 13 – 18 %. An example of analysis of the yield strength behavior of steels with experimental chemical compositions is given. It is shown that the dependences found for the yield strength and tensile strength are stable with respect to the increase of experimental data matrix: with an increase in the number of experiments from 94 and higher, the coefficient of variation V monotonously decreases up to a maximum array size of 299 experiments.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>многофакторный анализ</kwd><kwd>нелинейная регрессия</kwd><kwd>ферритно-мартенситные стали</kwd><kwd>предел текучести</kwd><kwd>предел прочности</kwd><kwd>химический состав</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>mathematical modeling</kwd><kwd>multifactor analysis</kwd><kwd>nonlinear regression</kwd><kwd>ferritic-martensitic steels</kwd><kwd>yield strength</kwd><kwd>ultimate strength</kwd><kwd>chemical composition</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ланская К.А. 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